Please e-mail Sara Stoudt (sas072@bucknell.edu)
Taught by Deborah Nolan and Sara Stoudt at UC Berkeley
Taught by Sara Stoudt at Bucknell University
Nolan, Deborah, and Sara Stoudt. “Reading to write.” Significance 17.6 (2020).
Stoudt, Sara. “Can TV make you a better stats communicator?.” Significance (2023).
Nolan, Deborah, and Sara Stoudt. “Captions: The Unsung Heroes of Data Communication” IASE (2021)
A rapid test for HIV was developed for its sensitivity: the new test was shown to have sensitivity of 83%, compared to 60% for a commonly used test. This increased detection rate matters because those with false negative results (HIV-positive individuals whose disease goes undetected by a test) are likely not to return for further testing. The specificity of the rapid test is 97%. For example in a population of 692,000 with 12,000 HIV-positive, we expect \((0.83*12,000) = 9,960\) HIV-positive people to test positive and \(((1-0.97)*(692,000 - 12,000)) = 20,400\) HIV-negative people to test positive. That is, the test has a precision of only \((9,960/(20,400+9,960)) = 32.8\%\). However the rapid test can be immediately administered a second time for anyone with a positive result. With this two-step approach the precision increases to \(((12,000/69,2000*0.83^2)/((12,000/69,2000*0.83^2) + (680,000/692,000*0.03^2)) = 93.1\%\).