Please e-mail Sara Stoudt (sas072@bucknell.edu)
Taught by Deborah Nolan and Sara Stoudt at UC Berkeley
Taught by Sara Stoudt at Bucknell University
Day-to-day overview Fall ’25: coming soon
Nolan, Deborah, and Sara Stoudt. “Reading to write.” Significance 17.6 (2020).
paper coming soon
Stoudt, Sara. “Can TV make you a better stats communicator?.” Significance (2023).
Nolan, Deborah, and Sara Stoudt. “Captions: The Unsung Heroes of Data Communication” IASE (2021)
A rapid test for HIV was developed for its sensitivity: the new test was shown to have sensitivity of 83%, compared to 60% for a commonly used test. This increased detection rate matters because those with false negative results (HIV-positive individuals whose disease goes undetected by a test) are likely not to return for further testing. The specificity of the rapid test is 97%. For example in a population of 692,000 with 12,000 HIV-positive, we expect \((0.83*12,000 =) 9,960\) HIV-positive people to test positive and \(((1-0.97)*(692,000 - 12,000) =) 20,400\) HIV-negative people to test positive. That is, the test has a precision of only \((9,960/(20,400+9,960) =) 32.8\%\). However the rapid test can be immediately administered a second time for anyone with a positive result. With this two-step approach the precision increases to \(((12,000/69,2000*0.83^2)/((12,000/69,2000*0.83^2) + (680,000/692,000*0.03^2)) =) 93.1\%\).